Scientists were expecting a “singularity moment” by 2030 but the development of new technologies is increasing even more rapidly. Soon artificial intelligence will surpass the human’s and will be able to grow and develop by itself. Are we able to forecast its behavior and what can we do if it is impossible? What human’s jobs will be replaced by robots? What will happen in the next 100 years? Foreign, well-known experts expressed their opinions and predictions concerning this global challenge in the review material of Startegy2050.kz.
The first reply to the question - what do humans do in the world of machines? – was given by Hussein Atakan Varol, the Department Chair and Associate Professor of Robotics and Mechatronics at Nazarbayev University.
“Actually not much. But it needs some more time”, he answered.
According to him, there will be an opportunity to robotize the production. And people will not even work in the future. They just will have time to leisure activities and will be given to creativity.
“And I can say that such a version of the future is possible. A machine with an artificial intelligence will be able to perform a test which a man cannot do. The IQ level of robots will be higher than human’s many times over”, the expert believed.
In his words, robots will increase productivity of people, workers.
“It sounds like a science fiction but in the next 20-30 years middle-leveled jobs will be replaced by robots. They will perform and diagnose the work more accurately”, H. Atakan Varol said.
Computers with cognitive functions will also appear.
“10 years ago computers’ vision could only recognize points, edges and lines but such algorithms as now can recognize people, animals, any other images. And it works 1000 times faster than people and previous computers. For the first time in the history computers can describe to us this or that situation. For example, they can talk about a group of people sitting with each other. Before that, it was impossible. We do not know how far this study will go because we do not know the dynamics, but machines can explain to us how the outside world is. Those robots that we saw in the films will be identical to those that appear in the future. This is a very interesting direction”, the professor stated.
But, at the same time, the expert concerned about the unemployment level in the countries which introduce robotics and automation.
“The unemployment level increases and this process will continue. Slaves exploitation during the Roman Empire led to the emergence of Spartacus and possibly after some time exploitation of people by robots will take place. And we will fight against this. This is a big challenge”, Hussein Atakan Varol winded up his speech.
Head of Robotics Laboratory, “Sberbank”, Albert Yefimov was interested how many jobs and professions will disappear.
According to him, from 9% to 45% jobs will disappear. There is no clear answer but, nevertheless, new jobs will appear.
“We are not replacing humans everywhere. It’s important to understand that the average labor productivity per hour in Germany is 30 euros and robots are asking actually 5 euros per hour. Collaborative robots are asking less than 5 euros per hour. It’s means that human labor is now becoming more expensive for any organization. So don't forget about this”, he said.
So how many professions will be in the near future?
“None of us knows how robotics will work. I want to mention John Keynes. He believed that by this time there will be such robots which completely replace humans. That’s not correct. There are no robots that can replace humans. When we upsurge in technological development, we can say that this is absolutely impossible. Of course, operators of contact centers will be replaced may be in 5 years. But the job of teacher, kindergartner won’t be replaced in the next generations because it’s not possible. In those areas where it is necessary to develop human creative abilities robots absolutely are non-effective. Of course, cashiers will be replaced. But gardeners will never be replaced because it’s too difficult to replace a gardener. I believe that long-hour drivers will be replaced. It’s actually good thing”, A. Yefimov continued.
Amid all this, the only thing that will help us distinguish from robots is that humans have emotions.
“Humans make other people like something. We can like something but we also can disgrade people to like something that’s our unique ability that differentiate from robots. As for a man, a man differs from other beings that we have a system of preferences, we have emotions, we rush to help our neighbor and this is what we cannot teach robots, and only a man has this ability”, the Head of Robotics Laboratory at “Sberbank” concluded.
According to Jean-Baptiste de Chocqueuse, the Director of “Heliantus Advisors”, people will find a way to interact with robots both on the Earth and even in the Solar system.
“This will also become in 100 years. I am sure about this. Robots will perform computational and physical functions. Of course, it will be possible to create creative algorithms for them but they still will not be as creative as people”, he stated.
In his words, maybe, in 5 years, humanoid robots will affect productivity very much. They will perform simple physical works, for example, in McDonald’s they will cook burgers. This is a very limited task and robots will be able to do this.
But will we able to adapt robots? Despite his optimism, Jean-Baptiste de Chocqueuse sees the danger in the development of artificial intelligence.
“For some reason, we do not see a real threat that criminal robots may appear in the future, which people will use for their own purposes. But this can very well happen. And we must be ready for anything”, the speaker said.
Physicist, futurist, and science popularizer Michio Kaku started his speech talking about the big picture, jobs and the next 100 years.
According to him, the future of the Internet will be in our contact lenses. We will see everything in our contact lenses.
“For example, students can pass their exams with the help of these contact lenses. At the party if we don’t know some people we will be able to see all information in contact lenses”, Michio Kaku said.
By the way, such lenses already exist for diabetics. A chip for monitoring the level of glucose in the blood system is introduced in the contact lenses.
Speaking about jobs, the physicist explained which jobs will not be replaced in the world of machines.
“Robots are good at research science. For example, computers surpass humans in diagnosing Alzheimer's disease. What about lawyers? Lawyers will survive because it is necessary to use judgments, judiciousness. Carpenters, policemen, garbagemen will survive. This is semi-skilled work that is not robot-repeatable. No robot can repair your toilet. Robots cannot solve the problem of crime. Of course, artists will survive”, the futurist told.
In the words of the scientist, the robotic sector will be more than the automotive industry today. And robots will be pose a threat to human beings.
“In the next century, robots will become much smarter and can be dangerous, so people need to merge with them, rather than compete. Robots will become smarter than a mouse, than a rat, a rabbit, than a dog, a cat. I don’t know when probably centuries later the robots will become smarter than a monkey. And this point is dangerous. Dangerous because they will have self-awareness. Robots will be able to kill. Today robots do not know that they are robots. They don’t understand who they are. In 100 year, they will, I think”, Michio Kaku said.
Nevertheless, Michio Kaku is optimistic about the interaction of human beings with robots.
“We will have brain computer interface. We will be able to recorder simple memories. Dreams will be reordered. One day we will wake up and will see dreams that we had previous night. We begin to communicate mentally with machines. The Internet will become brainer. We will send emotions, feelings, sensations, mental pictures. We will become supermen and superwomen”, the science popularizer concluded.