In our opinion, the housing issue is the most urgent. According to the results of the research at the beginning of 2017, the number of people in need of housing was 2.5 million people or 14% of the population (according to the research of the analytical agency Ranking.kz).
In addition, the housing issue is among the most pressing problems among young families. The social well-being of a young family largely depends on the availability of own housing. According to the results of the sociological survey of youth conducted by the research center "Youth" in 2017, the main problems of young families have a socio-economic basis. More than half of the respondents mentioned the absence of their own housing as the primary problem - 62.5% of young citizens who are married and 55.6% of respondents who are not married.
Thus, within the framework of the first social initiative "New opportunities of house-buying for each family" the Head of the State proposed a new housing program "7-20-25", which includes additional measures to ensure the availability of housing for citizens, including young people. In this mortgage program the following conditions are provided: the interest rate is not more than 7%, the down payment is 20%, the maturity of the mortgage loan is up to 25 years. The new program will be designed for all segments of the population in Kazakhstan. It can be assumed that the proposed conditions of the new program almost fully meet the expectations of the population. This assumption is supported by the results of a one-time survey "Quality of life of the population", which was conducted by the Committee on Statistics of the Ministry of National Economy of Kazakhstan in March 2017. Respondents among the main problems in purchasing housing indicated its high cost - 52.6%, lack of money - 34.5% and high interest rates on mortgage loans - 29.4%.
Also, in the case of the implementation of the new mortgage program, second-tier banks will receive an additional plus and will be able to lend more. At the same time, the National Bank, second-tier banks and the stock market will be involved. According to the instruction of the President of Kazakhstan, the National Bank must create a special company that will be able to attract at least 1 trillion tenge and send them to buy out new mortgage loans provided by second-tier banks on the terms of the new mortgage program.
At the same time, economist Olzhas Khudaibergenov noted it’s necessary that the new mortgage program should spread exclusively to primary housing. In his opinion, if the implementation of the program is directed to secondary housing, this may lead to the emergence of speculators.
We note that over the past 10 years the availability of housing per one resident has increased by 30% and today is 21.6 square meters (in urban areas - 24 square meters, in rural areas - 18 square meters). In the Address of 2018, Head of State N.A. Nazarbayev was tasked to bring this figure to 30 square meters per person in 2030. At the same time, the highest figures in Astana and Almaty have almost come close to this value - 29.6 and 27.6 square meters per person, respectively. On the contrary, the lowest indicators in the regional context are recorded in Zhambyl and Almaty regions - 16.3 and 18.5 square meters per person, respectively.
Over the 10-year period, the total area of the housing stock has increased by 82 million square meters or 31.5% - from 260.6 million in 2007 to 342.6 million in 2016. The area of housing stock in urban areas is 90 million square meters or 1.7 times more than in rural areas. This is due to the fact that through the natural processes of urbanization of the population there is an increase in the number of urban population, suggesting an increase in the area of housing stock. In this regard, the urban housing stock will constantly exceed the total area of the housing stock in rural areas.
By the end of 2017, the total area of residential buildings commissioned amounted to 11.2 million square meters, which was 6.2% higher than the previous year. Of the total number of residential buildings, 26,548 individual and 1,203 apartment buildings were commissioned. In terms of construction, Astana and Almaty are leading, accounting for 38.1% of the republican input volume. North Kazakhstan, Pavlodar and Kostanay regions have the lowest figures in terms of house commissioning.
In general, the proposed social initiative will make the mortgage loan more affordable, allow the population to purchase their own housing under more favorable conditions, give a powerful impetus to the active development of the construction and other related industries, and ultimately create a multiplier effect for the whole economy in the medium term.
Realization of the initiative "New opportunities of house-buying for each family" will also contribute to the growth of the national economy, development of small and medium-sized businesses, creation of new jobs. As a result, the availability of purchasing own housing for millions of Kazakhstanis will significantly increase.
Economist Rakhman Alshanov pointed out that the new housing program represents a huge social responsibility of the state to the population. For many, the housing issue is becoming an important factor. In these conditions, the preferential mortgage lending removes a number of issues. Another effect of the housing program is to increase the employment, diversify the economy and stimulate the business.
Thus, the President's five social initiatives focus on the main goal of the state policy - improving the welfare of citizens of Kazakhstan, and fully meet the needs of the population. In this vein, the five initiatives are the basis for continuing the modernization course because the welfare and well-being of Kazakhstanis is a key factor in the successful implementation of reforms.
an expert of "Parasat"
system research institute